Sunday, September 18, 2005

It’s Super Sonntag!

Germans are today being asked to decide on who shall be leading Europe’s richest state for the next four years. The elections are too close to tell as the idea of forming a ‘grand coalition’ between the Conservatives coalition and the Social-Democrat coalition gains ground. The other option for Germany seems to be a traffic-light coalition between the Social-Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals. Both options may steer Germany, and the rest of Europe, to a halt.

From Euractiv.com:
“The top issues are jobs and taxes in Germany's 18 September elections, where the country's 62 million eligible voters will elect members of parliament and the controlling party then selects the chancellor. Turnout is projected at around 80%.
Overall, the pre-election public opinion polls have shown that Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats tend to be trusted by the public to have a better grasp on foreign policy issues and are generally perceived to be more committed to social justice. At its core, the SPD's message is that the key reforms are in place and have more or less been implemented, and now is the time for the country to realise the benefits under another Social Democrat-led government.
At the same time, the conservatives, led by CDU leader Angela Merkel, are generally believed by the electorate to offer a more solid programme aimed at turning Germany's economy around. They advocate faster progress on the labour market, welfare and tax changes. The conservatives promise more radical reforms as a way out of the "failed" efforts of the Schröder cabinet.
In the polls, Merkel's conservatives continue to lead Schröder's Social Democrats, but the margin has shrunk in recent days. During the past week alone, Schröder has closed Merkel's lead from 17% to 6%. It therefore appears increasingly likely that the CDU will not be able to form a centre-right coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) but will instead be forced to conclude a "grand coalition" with the SPD. In this scenario Merkel would still become the country's first female chancellor. However, as the New York Times commented, "given the aura of political invincibility that has enveloped Mrs Merkel since a weakened Mr Schröder called for elections in May, that would be seen almost as a defeat".
Germany had its last 'grand coalition' in the 1960s. Led by Christian Democrat Chancellor Kurt-Georg Kiesinger, it governed the country between 1966 and 1969. It was a 'coalition of the willing' in that the participants were all ready to work together.
[…]
However, the election results are likely to leave no choice but a 'grand coalition' , despite the fact that such a marriage of convenience may not be in Germany's best interests, as big clashes on key issues would predictably hamper decision-making. A hung parliament is looking increasingly likely, which in turn might lead to new elections as early as next year.”

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